The IPOX® Week #698
IPOX® 100 ETF (FPX) tops U.S. benchmarks ahead of expiration week.
IPOX® MENA retreats as rally in IPO poster children fades.
“Manufactured” to do well: ARM Holdings set to debut Thursday 9/14.
IPOX® SPAC (SPAC) drops 1%, moves massive +1053 bps. ahead of R2K YTD.
WEEKLY IPOX® PERFORMANCE REVIEW: Ahead of U.S. Futures and Options expiration week, the IPOX® Indexes traded lower across the board. While big U.S. corporate bond supply and mixed economic numbers pushed U.S. Yields slightly higher and fears over demand strength pressured key global technology play Apple (AAPL US: -5.95%) to a big weekly loss, the IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX) declined by -1.13% to +11.76% YTD, ahead of most U.S. benchmarks, including the Russell 2000 (RTY: -3.61%). Declines extended to markets abroad, with weakness in China-linked exposure hitting the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI), while the IPOX® 100 Europe (ETF: FPXE) traded in line with its benchmark. We also note a week of declines in the IPOX® MENA Index (IPEV) on selling across select healthcare and technology exposure, while oil-related exposure gained.
GINDEX® PERFORMANCE REVIEW: The innovative large-cap focused and super liquid portfolios which focus on acquirers of IPOs (IPO M&As) also weakened last week. The U.S.-focused GINDEX® U.S. (GNDX) fell to +10.76% YTD, while the GINDEX® International (GNDXI) declined to +3.15% since its 3/17 live launch.
IPOX® PORTFOLIO STOCKS IN FOCUS: The IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX) continued to be led by “Internet of Things” cloud management firm Samsara (IOT: +9.90%), which extended its post-earnings run to a second week and has now gained a massive +145.94% YTD. Other notable upside movers included online travel and booking services marketplace IPOX® heavyweight Airbnb (ABNB US: +9.90%). The company added to recent gains after being selected to S&P 500 index membership (ETF: SPY) after the close the previous Friday. We also note the good week for software solutions provider Gitlab (GTLB US: +6.47%) after strong earnings while sports betting firm De-SPAC Draftkings (DKNG US: +7.46%) rose towards a fresh all-time high on start of the NFL season. Amid a tough week for U.S. Industrials (XLI US: -2.91%), we continue to watch with interest renewed gains in IPOX® heavyweight Spin-off HVAC equipment maker Carrier Global (CARR US: +1.24%, $49b market cap) with positive sentiment from its landmark $13 billion acquisition of Germany’s Viessmann Climate Solutions driving significant (hedge fund) stake building. U.S. electric car maker Rivian (RIVN US: -0.90%) beat old-economy incumbent General Motors (GM US: -1.76%) for another week with its market cap differential shrinking to just $23 billion. Big weakness in the Russell 2000 (RTY US: -3.16%) pressured respective IPOX® 100 U.S. holdings (ETF: FPX), including factory automation technology maker Symbotic (SYM US: -15.05%), medical equipment maker Transmedics Group (TMDX US: -15.26%), industrial Core & Main (CNM US: -10.16%), semiconductor maker Allegro Microsystems (ALGM US: -9.35%) and FL-based infrastructure construction firm Mastec (MTZ US: -7.77%). Across non-U.S. domiciled exposure tracked in the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI) and IPOX® 100 Europe (ETF: FPXE), for example, we note another all-time high in IPO M&A drug maker Novo Nordisk (NVO US: +3.22%), alongside its GINDEX® U.S. counterpart Eli Lilly (LLY US: +5.27%), while 07/2022 China-domiciled home products store operator Miniso Group (MNSO US: +3.97%) dodged the weakness across most other China-linked exposure for one more week to close at a weekly post IPO-high, extending its YTD gain to a massive +148.74%. Unusual weakness across services sector exposure pressured the IPOX® MENA (IPEV) to retreat from its YTD high with companies including software maker Elm (ELM AB: -7.70%), rental car operator Theeb Rent A Car (THEEB AB: -6.82%) and stock exchange operator Saudi Tadawul Group (TADAWULG AB: -3.64%) in focus.
GLOBAL IPO DEAL FLOW REVIEW AND OUTLOOK: Just one notable IPO started trading last week. The H-share offering of Chinese biotech ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (1541 HK, $943m market cap) added +6.75% measured by the difference between the final offering price and Friday’s close. Most focus during this week is on the IPO of UK-based chip maker Arm Holdings (ARM US) which is set to debut on Thursday on NASDAQ. With an initial expected public float of less than 10%, books now solidly covered and big-brand names lined up as cornerstone investors, the deals looks priced well for first day investors and “manufactured” to have a strong opening, with secondary share selling presenting an overhang risk over the medium term. We note that one of the year’s largest IPOs, the 05/2023 IPO of U.S. consumer staple Kenvue (KVUE US, $41b market cap), has broken deal Thursday before recovering into the weekend. The IPO of ARM Holdings comes ahead of another well anticipated deal set to commence trading post- Futures and Option expiration week, the IPO of grocery delivery platform operator Instacart (CART).
THE IPOX® SPAC (SPAC): The Index of 50 constituents trading at both the pre- and post-consummation stage fell -1.00% to +15.65% YTD during the Labor Day shortened trading week. IPOX® SPAC Leaders recording significant moves last week included quantum computing firm IonQ (IONQ US: +10.45%), while mobile medical services and transportation provider DocGo (DCGO US: -19.22%) plunged as the New York City comptroller rejected the now re-honored $432 migrant contract. Other SPAC news from last week: 1) 4 SPACs Announced Merger Agreement include DHC Acquisition (DHCA US: -1.67%) wit Wyoming-based AI avatars personalized customer engagement services firm Brand Engagement Network (BEN). 2) 1 SPAC Approved/Completed Business Combination with Rosecliff Acquisition Corp I (RCFL US: +13.58%) approved merger with AI-driven wound care predictive diagnostic platform Spectral MD (MDAI US: 9/11). 3) 2 SPACs announced liquidation. 4) No new SPAC launched last week in the U.S.
