SchusterWatch #762 (11/25/2024)
Markets are no match for IPOX® as massive risk shifting rally resumes.
Beyond the QQQs: IPOX® 100 U.S. soars +6.37% to +34.20% YTD.
IPOX® Top Pick Tokyo Metro selected to run London’s Elizabeth line.
Groupe Dynamite reignites Canada’s IPO market. Pony AI gets Uber backing.
Happy Thanksgiving from the IPOX® Team!
IPOX® INDEXES: Most IPOX® Index Strategies resumed the historic run-up ahead of Thanksgiving week in the United States, benefiting most from 1) the resumption of the big risk shifting rally in global equities away from conventional benchmark/technology exposure to unseasoned equities tracked by IPOX® underpinned by 2) Momentum Buying and explosive earnings reported by select IPOX® portfolio holdings amid 3) a bit of more smooth sailing on the interest rates front as U.S. government yields stabilized, the dollar firmed and overall equity risk (VIX: -5.58%) trended lower. (Relative) gains extended to non-U.S. domiciled IPOX® exposure.
IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX): In the U.S., the MAG7-free IPOX® 100 U.S. (BBG: IPXO), tracked by the world’s largest IPO-focused ETF (Ticker: FPX) and CME listed IPOX® 100 U.S. emini Futures (IPOZ4), soared +6.37% to +34.20% YTD, +469 bps., +456 bps. and +191 bps. ahead of the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and small-cap gauge Russell 2000 (RTY) last week, respectively. Amid earnings and some big positive outliers, 87% of portfolio holdings in the IPOX® 100 U.S. rose with the average (median) equally weighted stock adding +6.29% (+4.29%) lagging the applied market-cap weighted index for a 3rd straight week.
Top of the list ranked MT-based software provider Snowflake (SNOW US: +32.93%) and Wal-Mart backed factory automation play Symbotic (SYM US: +31.52%), both of which far exceeded analyst expectation on reported quarterly results. AI-salad bar operator Sweetgreen (SG US) ranked as the 3rd best weekly performer, adding +29.51%. Health care stocks and government tech contractors remained sensitive to daily DC news flow and trended lower, including Spin-off Amentum (AMTM US: -3.06%) and IPO M&A Tenent Healthcare (THC US: -7.54%) We note another great relative week for the ESG-tilted version (IPXT) of the IPOX® 100 U.S., adding +5.18% to +52.32% YTD (+65.51% Y/Y).
MOST IPOX® EXPOSURE LINKED TO NON-U.S. DOMICILED STOCKS ADDED TO YTD GAINS LAST WEEK: Amid more Euro weakness (EUR/USD: -1.08%) and more relative declines in German government debt, the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI) added +2.42% to +17.03% YTD, while the IPOX® 100 Europe (ETF: FPXE) added +2.34% to +17.49%. We also note Friday’s Bloomberg feature highlighting the IPOX® Canada (ICDX) which continued to rally +3.35% to +37.01% YTD (read more here). Nordic exposure led some of the big gains in both portfolios, including upmarket winter apparel maker Helsinki-based Amer Sports (AS US: +25.71%), Swedish cybersecurity hardware stock Yubico (YUBICO SF: +14.26%) and IPOX® Top pick high-dividend paying shipping company Hoegh Autoliners (HAUTO NO: +7.57%). Tracked in the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI), we also highlight fresh all-time highs in Mexico’s oil & gas explorer and takeover candidate Vista Energy (VIST US: +18.69%), while key Japan IPO M&A Financial heavyweight Sompo (8630 JP: +12.39%) soared on strong earnings. Desolate German sportscar maker and 4% yielder Porsche (P911 GY: -8.59%) continued its descent, closing the week at a fresh post-IPO weekly low on more China pressure and capitulation selling.
… AND THEN THERE WAS TOKYO METRO: IPOX® Top Pick Tokyo Metro (9023 JP: +2.30%), 10/22 TSE IPO and a holding in multiple IPOX®-linked run portfolios, including the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI) and Rakuten Global IPO Equity Fund (Japan), was featured in London’s “The Guardian” Newspaper, as the company renowned for operating one of the most reliable railway systems in the world “has won a deal to take over the operation of London’s Elizabeth line, replacing the incumbent Chinese-owned operator MTR”.
IPOX® SPAC INDEX (SPAC): The Index soared +6.93% last week, bringing its year-to-date performance to +7.78%. Voice AI company SoundHound AI (SOUN US: +29.72%) skyrocketed after announcing that its deployment of the Amelia AI agent improved customer service and helped French insurance wholesale broker Apivia Courtage reduce inbound queries by nearly 20%. Netherland-based, late clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company NewAmsterdam Pharma (NAMS US: -18.88%) tumbled despite positive trial data. Long halted Hudson Acquisition I (HUDA US) signed a definitive agreement with Munich-based Aiways Automobile Europe to form EuroEV. 2 SPACs completed business combinations this week include TMT Acquisition closed its merger with Chinese EV and energy storage lithium-ion battery company eLong Power (ELPW US: -64.48%). 2 new SPACs launched in the U.S. this week.
GLOBAL ECM REVIEW AND OUTLOOK: Just 19 non-SPAC listings launched globally last week, raising $1.3 billion. The median IPO fell -0.70% from offer price to Friday’s close. Last weeks standout listing was Canadian clothes retailer Groupe Dynamite (GRGD CN: -5.48%), which fell after raising $215 million on the Toronto Stock Exchange, the largest Canadian domestic listing since 2022, focus of Bloomberg’s interview with IPOX® CEO Josef Schuster (read more here).
Chinese autonomous driving firm Pony.ai (PONY US) postponed their $260 million listing to this week, after Uber announced plans to invest more than $10 million in the IPO. China’s domestic and international freight and logistics giant S.F. Holding (6936 HK) is set to raise up to $840 million in Hong Kong.
Read the IPOX® Update on the latest IPO news: Several large firms announced plans for U.S. listings, including a $5 billion raise by medical supplies leader Medline Industries, and the upcoming Nasdaq listing by $9.5 billion HVAC software specialist ServiceTitan. The London blockbuster IPO of fast-fashion giant Shein is materializing for early 2025, aiming for a $63 billion valuation.
Visit check in on www.ipox.com or our Linkedin for more updates.
