SchusterWatch #770 (1/13/2025)
Key IPOX® Indexes record losses last week, stay Green for year.
Bespoke ex-USA exposure propels sentiment in the IPOX® International.
2025 Corporate Actions in full swing as Constellation Energy soars +20.99%.
Smithfield Foods files first sizable U.S. IPO in 2025, at $5.4b valuation.
IPOX® WEEKLY REVIEW: The big slump in select European/U.K. and U.S. government bonds - enforced by strong U.S. economic numbers towards the weekend – finally took a toll on global equities last week, with most IPOX® Indexes affected as well. Amid soaring global risk (VIX: +21.14%) and ahead of more economic/inflation numbers due out this week, the positive impact of select Corporate Actions linked to heavily weighted IPOX® Portfolio Holdings mitigated the negative impact.
On the global level, the Super-Liquid large/mega-cap IPOX® Global 50 (IPGL50) – bespoke portfolio pooling the New Generation of Equities across Industries by applying the IPOX® Indexes Technology – fell -1.80% to +2.36% YTD, +316 bps. ahead of the MSCI World (MXWO), global stock benchmark. Strong relative sentiment extended to most most regions: In the United States, for example, the IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX) – fell -3.37% to +0.97% YTD to remain +168 bps., +175 bps., and +281 bps. YTD ahead of the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and Russell 2000 (RTY) YTD, respectively. With no earnings driving the distribution of individual portfolio returns, 79% of holdings fell, with the average (median) equally-weighted firm declining by -3.28% (-3.84%). Big gains in all-star IPOX® Heavyweight energy transition play 01/22 Spin-off Constellation Energy (CEG US: +20.92%, Calpine Acquisition) and select health care exposure such as 12/22 Spin-off GE Healthcare (GEHC US: +5.27%, upgrades), mid-cap IPO M&As pharma maker Glaukos (GKOS US: +3.35%) and Health Equity (HQY) were mitigated by the negative impact of big selling in holdings such as AI-play Direct Listing Palantir (PLTR US: -15.81%), electric car maker Rivian (RIVN US: -16.01%) and AppLovin (APP US: -9.17%).
Exceptional (relative) start-of-the-year sentiment continued for bespoke selected non-U.S. domiciled stocks pooled in the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI) which traded resilient and retreated by -0.72% to +1.43% YTD last week and extending the YTD lead vs. benchmark MSCI World ex-U.S. (MXWOU) to +213 bps. Big strength in special situation-focused equities drove the strong showing, including Japan’s top semiconductor maker Advantest (6857 JP: +12.85%, taking stakes Formfactor and Technoprobe), China/US kitchen innovative kitchenware maker SharkNinja (SN US: +9.65%, upgrades), recently added sports data focused Sportradar (SRAD US: +7.04%), Mexico’s Vista Energy (VIST US: +6.79%, upgrades), German biotech BioNTech (BNTX US: +6.10%), Pharma Maker Galderma (GALD SE: +6.37%) and Saudi-based Industrial Riyadh Cables (RIYADHCA AB: +5.63%). Declines across Canadian Financials and weakness across China-linked exposure weighed.
THE IPOX® SPAC INDEX: The Index declined -7.27% last week, bringing its year-to-date performance to -3.80%. Genetic testing company GeneDx (WGS US: 12.24%) rose following an analyst upgrade, while Nvidia-backed voice AI company SoundHound AI (SOUN US: -30.11%) fell despite unveiling a new product at the CES conference. In SPAC activity, Colombier Acquisition II (CLBR US: -7.97% ) announced a definitive merger agreement with Dallas-based online firearms retailer GrabAGun. One new SPAC was launched in the U.S. this week. Japanese auto parts manufacturer Koito Manufacturing (7276 JP) completed its acquisition of Cepton (CPTN US) a 02/2022 deSPAC LiDAR company. The deal, first announced in July 2024, was finalized with a premium of approximately 25%.
GLOBAL ECM REVIEW AND OUTLOOK: 24 global IPOs started trading last week, with the average new issue gaining +40.14% (+16.58% median) from offer price to Friday’s close. The largest listings were Saudi Arabian healthcare services provider Almoosa Health (ALMOOSA AB: +4.88%), which raised $449 million, followed by Saudi e-commerce company Nice One Beauty Digital Market (NICEONE AB: +40.00%), which raised $323 million. In Hong Kong, toymaker Bloks Group (325 HK: +40.85%) led the deal flow, raising $216 million as part of a broader $413 million raised on the city’s exchange last week. This week, the first sizable U.S. IPO of 2025 is expected, oil and gas field machinery equipment company Flowco Holdings (FLOC US), planning to raise $410 million on Thursday.
Visit the IPOX® Calendar for this week’s listing overview and read The IPOX® Update for the latest IPO News, including, pork producer Smithfield Foods publicly filing for its U.S. IPO, potentially at over $5.4 billion, as well as Maze Therapeutics and Metsera filing for the first U.S. biotech IPOs this year.
