SchusterWatch #774 (2/10/2025)
IPOX® continues historic run as The New Generation leads the way.
IPOX® 100 U.S.: +3.44%, IPOX® Intern’l: +1.55%, IPOX® 100 EU: +0.70%
Palantir tops week with +34.38% jump. Doximity soars +34.06%.
Cybersecurity firm SailPoint set for $1b IPO this week, largest YTD.
IPOX® WEEKLY REVIEW: Strong earnings for key IPOX® Holdings coupled with correctly sized positioning, more gains for the IPOX® China (CNI: +4.47%) and lower rates on the long end amid a generally supportive economic backdrop continued to propel the historic (relative) Momentum in the IPOX® Indexes. Except for the IPOX® Japan (IPJP: -1.77%), gains extended to all regions/sectors with the IPOX® U.S. (IPXO, IPXT) leading the way amongst IPOX® Developed Markets.
The applied market-cap weighted IPOX® Indexes continued to outperform equally weighted IPOX® Portfolios during this earnings season thus far. This continued to be driven by outsized returns of select firms across the market cap spectrum, a similar dynamic when compared to the outstanding Q3 2024 earnings season.
In the U.S., e.g., the IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX) soared +3.44% to +13.58% YTD, while the S&P 500 (SPX: -0.24%) and Russell 2000 (RTY: -0.35%) declined and the MAG 7-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NDX: +0.06%) traded flat. Here, 49% of stocks rose, with the average (median) equally weighted firm adding just +0.92% (-0.04%), underlining the impact of the big upside in IPOX® Heavyweight AI/defense play Palantir Technologies (PLTR US: +34.38%) and medical technology platform Doximity (DOCS US: +34.06%) soared after reporting blockbuster Q4 results. Educational software maker/games platform operator Roblox (RBLX US: -6.74%) fell sharply. We note another big week for the IPOX® 100 U.S. ESG (IPXT), adding +4.49% to +16.93% YTD.
In Markets outside the U.S., the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI) traded firm as well, adding +1.55% to +9.79% YTD, extending the YTD gain vs. its benchmark to +456 bps. Here, 56% of portfolio holdings rose, with the average (median) equally-weighted stock adding +0.59% (+0.54%), also significantly lagging the applied market-cap weighted index. Top of the list ranked Nordic-based music and video streaming service provider Spotify (SPOT US: +13.57%), followed by Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC Drilling (ADNOCDRI DH: +9.26%) and Canada’s Definity Financial (DFY CN: +8.38%). Despite blockbuster earnings, Japan’s Fintech SBI Sumishin Netbank (7163 JP: -6.20%) fell sharply into the weekend, pressured by increasing doubts over its perceived takeover by NTT. Market-beating gains extended to the IPOX® Global 50 (IPGL50: +2.37%), IPOX® 100 Europe (IPOE: +0.70%), IPOX® Nordic (IPND: +1.81%) and IPOX® Canada (+1.31%).
THE IPOX® SPAC INDEX: The Index gained 1.65% last week, raising its YTD performance to 3.79%. Satellite firm AST SpaceMobile (ASTS US: 38.11%) surged on FCC authorization. Genetic testing company GeneDx (WGS US: -20.45%) declined on a short report, alleging fraud on illegal billing practices. One new U.S. SPAC launched last week. 2021 deSPAC solar asset owner Altus Power (AMPS US) is to be acquired by TPG with over 30% premium. 2021 deSPAC full-service vacation rental platform Vacasa (VCSA US) received a non-binding acquisition proposal from alternative investment management company Davidson Kempner Capital Management LP.
GLOBAL ECM REVIEW AND OUTLOOK: 26 companies went public globally last week, raising $3.2 billion. The average new issue gained +17.08% from offer price to Friday’s close (Median: +4.33%). The largest IPO was South Korean IT service provider LG CNS (064400 KS: -7.59%, $846 million). The largest U.S. listings were cement firm Titan America (TTAM US: +4.38%, $384 million) and biotech Sionna Therapeutics (SION US: +38.89%, $219 million). In Europe, Polish diagnostic services provider Diagnostyka (DIA PW: +23.83%, $416 million) and Czech steam turbine manufacturer Doosan Skoda Power (DSPW CP: +24.17%, $95 million) both showed strong gains, while Swiss antibiotics biotech BioVersys (BIOV SW: -2.36%, $83 million) fell. Looking ahead, the IPOX® Calendar remains busy. Key offerings include cybersecurity firm SailPoint (SAIL US, $1 billion) and aerospace defense company Karman (KRMN US, $400 million) in the U.S, Chinese bubble tea chain Guming (1364 HK, $190 million) in Hong Kong, Spanish travel tech firm HBX Group (TBA, $747 million) in Spain, luxury logistics provider Ferrari Group (FERGR NA, $215 million) in Amsterdam.
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