SchusterWatch #778 (3/10/2025)
Liquidation selling across unseasoned equities hits key IPOX® Indexes anew.
IPOX® China surges anew, (CNI: +21.15 YTD) adding to explosive YTD gains.
IPOX® U.S. heavyweight Doordash (DASH US) set to enter S&P 500 (SPX).
Mixue (2097 HK) surges after IPO as high-profile U.S. filings line up.
IPOX® WEEKLY REVIEW: More of the YTD gains for select IPOX® Indexes melted away during the first trading week of March, as a) heightened uncertainty over global trade and tarrifs, b) the huge move in German rates (BUND Yield: +17.87%) and the Euro/USD (+4.41%) amid expected wastershed changes in Germany’s fiscal policy and growth policies, c) mixed earnings and d) the subsequent spike in equity risk (VIX: +19.05%) drove the big risk-off trade in select equities from which the relatively unseasoned universe of stocks tracked by IPOX® continued to be affected most. More explosive gains for Chinese New Listings with the diversified IPOX® China (CNI) soaring to +21.15% YTD (+31.37% Y/Y) provided some welcome relief.
Ahead of March CME Equity Futures and Options Roll and expiration positioning, for example, the IPOX® Global (IPGL50), benchmark for the performance of the largest and best performing global IPOs and Spin-offs and liquid benchmark for global pre-IPO P/E and V/C, declined to -0.47% YTD (+18.93% Y/Y), now lagging benchmark MSCI World (MXWO) by -135 bps. YTD, while still leading it by +827 bps. Y/Y.
With the exception of China, declines extended to most other regions and countries: In the United States, e.g., the IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX) slumped to -6.13% YTD (+7.76% Y/Y), now tracking the Russell 2000 (RTY: -6.94%) YTD and underperforming the S&P 500 (SPX: -1.89%) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX: -3.86%). Its ESG-focused version (IPXT) declined to -2.14% YTD (+19.55% Y/Y). In non-U.S. domiciled exposure, the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI) declined to +3.25% YTD (+6.60% Y/Y), IPOX® 100 Europe (ETF: FPXE) fell to +4.95% YTD (+8.74% Y/Y) and the IPOX® Japan (IPJP) declined to -5.88% YTD (-8.01% Y/Y). Liquidation selling across a slew of recent IPOs amid fears of more secondary issuing activity after Adnoc Gas’s (ADNOCGAS UH) large recent deal in Abu Dhabi also pressured the IPOX® MENA (IPEV), declining to -8.08% YTD (-9.10% Y/Y).
In (perceived) corporate actions, we note Friday’s big after-hours upside in food delivery platform operator Doordash (DASH US), benefiting from being elevated to S&P 500 (SPX) membership, while strong earnings propelled wireless telecom AST SpaceMobile (ASTS US) which added to +58.29% YTD, making it an attractive takeover target for suiters including burgeoning Verizon (VZ) and T-Mobile (TMUS), in our opinion. Across Brazil-domiciled exposure tracked in the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI), Financial life insurance provider Caixa Seguridade Participacoes (CXSE3 BZ) added to +12.21% YTD, rising to a post-IPO high on a pick-up in trading volume and block trades as it continues to beat the Brazilian benchmarks.
GLOBAL ECM REVIEW AND OUTLOOK: 22 companies went public globally this past week, raising a total of $1.12 billion, with the average IPO gaining +27.08% from offer price to Friday's close (median: +7.86%). Two offerings stood out with exceptional performance: Chinese fast food giant Mixue Group (2097 HK: +75.31%), the world's largest fast food chain by location count focusing on drinks and desserts, which raised $445 million, and medical device company Kestra Medical (KMTS US: +23.47%), a defibrillator specialist that raised $202 million. Looking ahead, six sizable IPOs are expected globally this week: Chinese gold mining firm Chifeng Gold (6693 HK, $419 million) in Hong Kong, Swedish investment company Röko (ROKOB SS, $502 million) in Stockholm, UAE digital transformation provider Alpha Data ($163 million) in Abu Dhabi, Omani shipping company Asyad Shipping (ASCO OM, $333 million) in Muscat, Singapore-based oil and gas equipment manufacturer OMS Energy Technologies (OMSE US, $50 million) on NASDAQ, and South Korean state-owned Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS, $124 million) in Seoul.
IPO NEWS: After a period of relative calm, there has been a flurry of new U.S. filings last week. AI data center firm CoreWeave filed a Nasdaq IPO, potentially raising over $3.5 billion at a $30 billion valuation, while crypto exchange Gemini has filed confidentially. Digital health platform Hinge Health is considering an IPO filing as soon as this week, while collaborative design tool Figma plans to go public this year. Looking ahead, social networking app Discord and ticket marketplace StubHub are eyeing an IPO as soon as this year. Crypto exchange Kraken is preparing to go public in early 2026, with its revenue more than doubling to $1.5 billion last year amid expectations of a more relaxed regulatory environment under the Trump administration.
Visit the IPOX® Calendar for this week’s listing overview and read
The IPOX® Update for the latest IPO News.
