SchusterWatch #781 (3/31/2025)
Some IPOX® Indexes sour as equity risk spikes ahead of tariffs.
IPOX® China (CNI) is the big outlier as strategy soars to +23.60% YTD.
Nordic and China-linked stocks lead weekly performance rankings.
Coreweave muted; Asker Healthcare debuts strong; SmartStop lined up.
IPOX® WEEKLY REVIEW: Amid the spike in equity risk (VIX: +12.29%), higher U.S. yields, renewed stagflation fears and jitters ahead of tariffs on April 2nd, most IPOX® Indexes declined, reversing the big relative strength displayed during Futures and Options expiration week. Short selling in select IPOX® Heavyweights weighed on sentiment.
The IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX), for example, fell to -6.14% YTD, lagging the benchmarks last week. Here, 62/100 stocks fell, with the average (median) equally-weighted portfolio stock declining by -2.09% (-1.75%), better than when compared to the applied market-cap weighted index. Renewed concerted short selling in IPOX® heayweight AI-play Applovin (APP: -13.26%) pressured performance. Seasoned electric car maker Rivian (RIVN US: +6.98%) and recent IPOs pork producer Smithfield (SFT US: +6.19%) and certification provider UL Solutions (ULS: +4.09%) recorded upside in what otherwise was a challenging trading week.
Abroad, we note another good relative week for the IPOX® Global Nordic (IPND) which extended its relative Y/Y lead vs. the Nordic Market to a massive +2052 bps. with recently issued Swedish investment firm Roko (ROKOB SS: +5.81%), Norway’s fitness center chain Sats (SATS NO: +3.55%), Norway’s 14%-yielder oilfield services firm DOF Group (DOFG NO: +2.72%) and Finnish department store operator Puuilo (PUUILO FH: +2.52%) leading the way, while music streaming services provider U.S.-traded Spotify (SPOT US: -6.46%), as well as high-end sportswear maker Amer Sports (AS US: -8.10%) followed very weak sentiment for U.S. stocks and fell sharply.
Strong earnings amongst key holdings also propelled the IPOX® Global China (CNI) to a multi-year weekly closing high last week. By providing exposure to the largest, most liquid and most successful China-domiciled IPOs, Spin-offs and IPO M&A traded across accessbile global regions, the portfolio added to +23.61% YTD (+32.73% Y/Y) to continue to outpace non China-domiciled stocks. Amid explosive earnings growth, firms across various sectors led the gains, including toy maker Pop Mart International (9992 HK: +14.07%), IPO M&A residential services provider Country Garden Services (6098 HK: +13.78%), as well as biotech SKB (6990 HK: +12.00%). We also note the good week for the IPOX® MENA (IPEV) which added +1.02% to cut its YTD losses to -7.47% with Abu Dhabi’s 5.1%-yielder ADNOC Gas (ADNOCGAS UH: +3.86%), Saudi technology plays Elm (ELM AB: +2.10%) and Rasan (RASAN AB: +2.51%) driving the improvment in sentiment across Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates IPOs.
THE IPOX® SPAC INDEX: The Index declined by -4.33% to -14.02% last week. HCM II Acquisition (HOND US: 4.44%) rose following its merger target announcement while signing a business combination agreement with nuclear reactor developer Terrestrial Energy. Meanwhile, data center infrastructure and services provider Vertiv (VRT US: -16.22%) tumbled after analyst downgrades amid concerns over market oversupply. No SPACs completed a business combination or launched in the U.S. during last week.
GLOBAL ECM REVIEW AND OUTLOOK: 31 companies went public globally last week, raising a total of $3.5 billion, with the average IPO gaining +11.98% from offer price to Friday's close (median: +2.80%). The highly anticipated low-float (<8%) IPO by Coreweave (CRWV US: 0.00%) dominated the week, though the AI infrastructure provider ultimately downsized its offering to $1.5 billion. As noted in a recent Reuters article featuring assessment by IPOX® analyst Lukas Muehlbauer, the deal set a crucial test for U.S. IPOs. On the back of the good week for select Nordic-traded small-caps, other deals included Swedish medical equipment provider Asker Healthcare Group (ASKER SS: +14.63%), which raised $869 million in Europe's largest deal YTD. Hong Kongs Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK: -12.24%, $302m), and Indonesian confectionery leader Yupi Indo Jelly (YUPI IJ: 0.00%, $125m) debuted mixed. Deals lined up for this week include crypto mining equipment maker Bgin Blockchain (BGIN US, $50m), gas equipment manufacturer OMS Energy Technologies (OMSE US, $50m) and self-storage REIT SmartStop (SMST US, $864m).
Visit the IPOX® Calendar for this week’s listing overview and read
The IPOX® Update for the latest IPO News.
